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Minute Physics 15 Apr 2026 25 here now

Is Perfect Prediction Possible?

A response to Veritasium's video on Newcomb's Paradox. See my full conversation with Derek over on the MinutePhysics patreon: https://www.patreon.com/cw/minutephysics

See Derek's original video over

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Comments (20)

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what I find amazing is the sheer number of videos I've seen that don't cover the "naive yet super accurate predictor" case. Thank you for being someone who finally covered the decay case :D
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I knew before and after the video what to think, since after every minutephysics video i think: that was a nice video.
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6:48 This is my problem with social media companies algorithms. They act like they know you and what you like and want, but just because I get into one subject for a time that doesn't mean that is all I want to see, hear, learn, or interact with forever.
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@Stirdix From YouTube ↗ 21 Apr 2026 38
The quantum entanglement argument was exactly an essay I wrote for my philosophy class on this problem in college
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@Ratty_77 From YouTube ↗ 21 Apr 2026 48
Before the video : one box.
After the video : one box.
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Everyone is commenting on which box they would choose, and someone's saving all that data. We're starting to build the machine that can make the prediction.
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@SimonFrack From YouTube ↗ 21 Apr 2026 347
10:08 I once demonstrated this to students by “inventing” a machine that detects a rare disease with 99.9% accuracy. All it does is display a message which tells them they don’t have it. 😂
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Therefore you only take the box with the 1000 to fool the supernatural being. :P
(Edit: Bad spelling of 'therefore'.)
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@Amazonlions From YouTube ↗ 21 Apr 2026 393
This video just reaffirmed my 1-boxer strategy
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@Culpride From YouTube ↗ 21 Apr 2026 77
I'd take only the box with the $1k and leave the mistery box as a tip for the predictor.
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@lmaopew From YouTube ↗ 21 Apr 2026 686
12:05 your prediction was actually off, cuz i was gonna choose 1 box and wasn't confused at all
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@Alorand From YouTube ↗ 21 Apr 2026 13
Taking one box aligns my interests and the predictor being, while picking two forces me to outsmart it. Since I still get a million dollars when picking one box the $1k is a small price to get such a being on my side.
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8:11 Quantum Mechanics destroying and saving the setup at the same time is the most Quantum Mechanics thing ever
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@srj737 From YouTube ↗ 21 Apr 2026 2500
This very much feels like the output of someone who was frustrated by the exploration of the paradox in the Vertitasium video (as was I!)
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The captions spell "newcomb" as "nukem" and I kept imagining Duke Nukem trying to choose a box
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@ccost From YouTube ↗ 21 Apr 2026 70
i love it when minutephysics suddenly turns into 13minutemaths every once in a while
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@shadauxcat From YouTube ↗ 21 Apr 2026 358
"Causal calculus says consuming iocaine powder is causally linked with drinking what one is given, and you gave me this glass, so I clearly can't choose the glass in front of me. But causal intervention says an intervener can change the outcome, and you're an intervener, so I clearly can't choose the glass in front of you."
"Truly you have a dizzying intellect."
"Wait till I get going!"
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@BooVoidCat From YouTube ↗ 21 Apr 2026 1000
Joke's on you; I already didn't know what to think at the beginning of the video!
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Just so that the predictor and I are on the same page, I would a 100% choose the one box.
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See my full conversation with Derek over on the MinutePhysics patreon: www.patreon.com/cw/minutephysics