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I guess I can agree with "it's likelier" but I would rate the chances of him calling an election as near zero.
There's little to gain and everything to lose. With such a big majority and Labour polling so low, it's pretty much guaranteed to lose a bunch of seats.
I think it's far more likely (or at least for more sensible), that Burnham comes in, and has a year or so of small wins to boost Labour polling before he calls an early GE.
Burnham did an AMA on Reddit where he was asked if he would call an early election and he clearly responded "No." He said he would work within the 2024 manifesto and uphold its commitments. With a majority that big, I'd be very surprised to see him U-turn on that.
If you've been tracking the council by-elections each week, there is hard evidence that his Makerfield win was simply a desperate people looking for a way to get rid of Starmer. They didn't actively want to vote Labour, it was simply the only way to get rid of Starmer.
I think if Burnham does this (and I agree he will - he's already hinted at it by saying 'give me ten years') then I think he loses his majority and we have the messiest hung Parliament ever.
Seems equally as likely though that if a snap election IS called, Burnham biffs it generationally and just hand the keys to no.10 to Farage a lot sooner than otherwise they would've. Doesn't seem like a great play.
political suicide. people don't actually care that much about "a mandate", that's just the theatre of parliament. what Burnham needs to do is wield the parliamentary majority and get some real policy changes through.
It'd be electoral suicide. Don't people remember what happened to Teresa May? It would be total hubris to call an election and create a hung parliament. Burnham has 3 years to get things done and PROVE his position, then let voters decide.
TLDR predicting a general election in an alternative universe on 29th of June 2026
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There's little to gain and everything to lose. With such a big majority and Labour polling so low, it's pretty much guaranteed to lose a bunch of seats.
I think if Burnham does this (and I agree he will - he's already hinted at it by saying 'give me ten years') then I think he loses his majority and we have the messiest hung Parliament ever.