Depends if he can figure out how to counter all this toxic misinformation and downright false information that we will be bombarded with on social media.
Making the possibly dubious assumption that Burnham won't track a little to the right once he's prime minister, his leadership of Labour may threaten Reform a little, but will be a greater danger to the Greens. The Lib Dems may have to focus almost exclusively on the South too.
It depends on the criteria. Get Labour another majority government? ...Unlikely. Prevent a Farage ministry at the next election? Much more likely. Swapping out Starmer for Burnham isn't going to be enough to totally turn Labour's fortunes around by itself, but a new PM with much better communication skills, actual ideas that he can convey to the public, a better relationship with his party's left wing and more political experience would be much less of a political punching bag than Starmer was.
The other thing with makerfield is that many residents saw it as a referendum on keir. Many people who may have voted reform in May choose to vote burnham because it would mean Starmer is gone now and not later. I do not think it's a Burnham brand, but rather a Starmer referendum.
TLDR in about a year "Why Andy Burnhan is doing worse than you thought."
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Edit: the board that's being waved quite violently was held by me, lol