If unit volumes is flat while population grows, that is a contraction. Also tarrifs are expiring and new ones are higher. And the fact that 2025s tarrifs were fully loaded last year in June along with the 12 day war, this year tarrifs were only 10% and we just had a ceasefire and still had flat core inflation. That is not a sign of a strong consumer
Where do you factor in the 3.7% inflation #? A basket of goods last year cost $100, this year the same basket $103.70. That is where the increase in spending comes in resulting in a smaller basket but increase in $ volume.
I don't need reports to tell me this: I know consumption rates have collapsed based on how many spam emails amazon and etsy send me in a given day (2 or 3 per day these days).
Our same but covers more and over last 3yrs icelandic been delayed 2 times for 2 weeks. Markets in the west are really shaking. Sure seems everysingle country are lip syncing same exact memo refarendu.
OKAY this book actually wrecked my week in the best way. Smart Broke Dumb Rich by Zor Veyl. always thought my family was just bad with money but nah, nobody ever taught them anything. work, pay bills, stay humble, survive. thats not money education thats just being tired on schedule.
I am a recent subscriber and I really appreciate your insightful , informative analysis. I know these videos are for infromation, but I am wondering if you provide actionable investment ideas.
Or it confirms people and money has moved online. Why everything so empty. Movies, clothes, shoes... even food, all online. People are doomed. U cant live that way. Gotta get around eachother and touch and feel and be in nature.
I think the thing to watch is the shipping volumes of the products that consumers buy. The report that Walmart was dropping prices because customer visits and purchase volumes were dropping falls in line with this. It's not as up to date as a higher velocity consumable like gasoline, but I think it does a better job of illustrating a longer term trend.
Back to school shopping next month will tell. Supplies, shoes, clothes, backpacks, lunches etc will need to be purchased. I am only paying bills, buying groceries, fill up my gas tank 2x a month. I drive much less, I do not need clothes or shoes or more junk to fill my house with.
Anecdotal here. Personally, we spent more in June because we were stocking up and buying needed goods in anticipation of prices going ballistic in the coming months. Stocked up on underwear. Bought a bread machine during Prime Day. Restocked the pantry. Ready for inflation to come back with a roar between now and end of year.
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