The balls in a Galton board fall down randomly. Any time they come to a junction they can take any number of paths and it's almost impossible to accurately predict every ball's trajectory.
Fun fact, Galton's equations are used in deciding how to attack things in war and how to plan for mass urban events.
Because you'll never know what one person will do, but you can know what every person will do.
Occasionally on this board you get a tiny few balls outside the distribution curve. Those are the outliers. Just like occasionally a human in a group will do something unexpected. But they don't matter. Because no event is about an individual. They're about the masses.
The problem with individual stock prices is that they do not follow a "random walk" because the next price in a sequence is NOT independent of its previous movements.
It is a fundamental restriction in the definition of "random walk" that each movement is completely independent of all previous states.
This is how you teach statistics, in college and highschool I was taught statistics and probality theory as if it was a recital I never understood what a distribution is and how it works or hoe itreflects on real world applications, thank you for this
We actually made a Galtonbrett (Brett is German for board) as a gift for our math teacher for high school graduation. It was made out of wood with many nails, plastic balls from a BB-gun, behind a PMMA cover. It showed not quite a normal distribution, our nails were a bit crooked 😅
So don’t be fooled by flashy lights and cool peg boards with neon pachinko boards! If the middle stuff is low and only the ends are the jackpot, dont even try it. You’re way more likely to walk out broke than to go out of there a millionaire.
We use cookies, device fingerprinting and cross-device tracking to personalise content, serve targeted advertising, and analyse how you use our site across your devices. By clicking Accept all you consent to the use of these tracking technologies. Your data may be used to build a profile of your interests and show you personalised ads on other sites.
Privacy policy
Comments (20)
Daily Junction discussion mixed with clearly attributed comments from the original video provider.
Join in — free. Comments on Daily Junction are for members, so real names stay rare and bots stay out.
One field. We email you a 6-digit code — no password needed. Your comment is kept while you do it.
Under 13? You’ll need a parent’s OK first — it takes them one click.
Because you'll never know what one person will do, but you can know what every person will do.
Occasionally on this board you get a tiny few balls outside the distribution curve. Those are the outliers. Just like occasionally a human in a group will do something unexpected. But they don't matter. Because no event is about an individual. They're about the masses.
It is a fundamental restriction in the definition of "random walk" that each movement is completely independent of all previous states.