If unit volumes is flat while population grows, that is a contraction. Also tarrifs are expiring and new ones are higher. And the fact that 2025s tarrifs were fully loaded last year in June along with the 12 day war, this year tarrifs were only 10% and we just had a ceasefire and still had flat core inflation. That is not a sign of a strong consumer
The economy is a tale of two consumers. The average American consumer has been struggling since the post-COVID inflation bomb exploded. Most people were not ready for housing and rent prices to nearly double. Prices on almost everything increased. People got more bad news with tariffs and trade wars and another slap in the face with war driving higher gas prices. People are falling further behind on payments unless they’re in the upper class. So if you’re riding high with your stock investments and you’re making a high income you’re buying. If you’re one of the millions who don’t wear bow ties to work, you’re buying too. At second hand clothing stores and ALDI and yard sales.
I am a recent subscriber and I really appreciate your insightful , informative analysis. I know these videos are for infromation, but I am wondering if you provide actionable investment ideas.
Our same but covers more and over last 3yrs icelandic been delayed 2 times for 2 weeks. Markets in the west are really shaking. Sure seems everysingle country are lip syncing same exact memo refarendu.
I don't need reports to tell me this: I know consumption rates have collapsed based on how many spam emails amazon and etsy send me in a given day (2 or 3 per day these days).
Where do you factor in the 3.7% inflation #? A basket of goods last year cost $100, this year the same basket $103.70. That is where the increase in spending comes in resulting in a smaller basket but increase in $ volume.
Or it confirms people and money has moved online. Why everything so empty. Movies, clothes, shoes... even food, all online. People are doomed. U cant live that way. Gotta get around eachother and touch and feel and be in nature.
I think the thing to watch is the shipping volumes of the products that consumers buy. The report that Walmart was dropping prices because customer visits and purchase volumes were dropping falls in line with this. It's not as up to date as a higher velocity consumable like gasoline, but I think it does a better job of illustrating a longer term trend.
Back to school shopping next month will tell. Supplies, shoes, clothes, backpacks, lunches etc will need to be purchased. I am only paying bills, buying groceries, fill up my gas tank 2x a month. I drive much less, I do not need clothes or shoes or more junk to fill my house with.
Anecdotal here. Personally, we spent more in June because we were stocking up and buying needed goods in anticipation of prices going ballistic in the coming months. Stocked up on underwear. Bought a bread machine during Prime Day. Restocked the pantry. Ready for inflation to come back with a roar between now and end of year.
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